North66
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Επ' ευκαιρία της είδησης για τον Άγγλο και Γάλλο υπουργό που κόλλησαν κορόνα, ένα άρθρο που μου έστειλαν.
Αφού είναι τόσο εύκολο ένας μη τυχαίος άνθρωπος όπως ένας υπουργός να κολλήσει τον ιό, αυτό σημαίνει ότι ο ιός δεν είναι πια σπάνιος και κυκλοφορεί σε μεγαλύτερα ποσοστά μεταξύ του πληθυσμού, το άρθρο υπολογίζει ότι μόνο στο Ιράν τα κρούσματα μπορεί να είναι 250 φορές περισσότερα. Τότε όμως δεν είναι και η θνησιμότητα στο Ιράν 250 φορές μικρότερη;
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...oronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/You are standing before a huge barrel of apples. You can’t see the apples, but you can reach in and pick them out. Most are delicious, but a very small number of them are rotten—just about one in 12,000, your friend assures you. You reach in blindly and miraculously pick out a rotten apple. You reach in again and withdraw a whole heaping bushel of apples, maybe 50 in all. Most are good, but when you look closely you see them: one, two, three, four more rotten apples. One rotten apple is an amazing coincidence. Five means your barrel has lots of rotting apples in it and your friend was lying to you.
The first sign of dishonesty came on February 28, when Masoumeh Ebtekar, one of the country’s vice presidents, announced that she had the virus. Ebtekar is one of the most famous politicians in the country, well known even in the West for her role as a particularly sadistic member of the group that held U.S. diplomats hostage in 1979 in Tehran.
If COVID-19 is so rare—fewer than 400 cases had been reported in Iran by the day she announced her diagnosis—what are the chances that one of the afflicted would be a famous politician?
Αφού είναι τόσο εύκολο ένας μη τυχαίος άνθρωπος όπως ένας υπουργός να κολλήσει τον ιό, αυτό σημαίνει ότι ο ιός δεν είναι πια σπάνιος και κυκλοφορεί σε μεγαλύτερα ποσοστά μεταξύ του πληθυσμού, το άρθρο υπολογίζει ότι μόνο στο Ιράν τα κρούσματα μπορεί να είναι 250 φορές περισσότερα. Τότε όμως δεν είναι και η θνησιμότητα στο Ιράν 250 φορές μικρότερη;
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...oronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/You are standing before a huge barrel of apples. You can’t see the apples, but you can reach in and pick them out. Most are delicious, but a very small number of them are rotten—just about one in 12,000, your friend assures you. You reach in blindly and miraculously pick out a rotten apple. You reach in again and withdraw a whole heaping bushel of apples, maybe 50 in all. Most are good, but when you look closely you see them: one, two, three, four more rotten apples. One rotten apple is an amazing coincidence. Five means your barrel has lots of rotting apples in it and your friend was lying to you.
The first sign of dishonesty came on February 28, when Masoumeh Ebtekar, one of the country’s vice presidents, announced that she had the virus. Ebtekar is one of the most famous politicians in the country, well known even in the West for her role as a particularly sadistic member of the group that held U.S. diplomats hostage in 1979 in Tehran.
If COVID-19 is so rare—fewer than 400 cases had been reported in Iran by the day she announced her diagnosis—what are the chances that one of the afflicted would be a famous politician?
